• About the Author
  • About the Site Name
  • Consulting Services
  • What readers are saying

Better fat than fascist

~ Considerations into the failures of over goverance & the successes of freedom

Tag Archives: Russia

Vladimir Putin is No Richard Nixon

03 Wednesday Sep 2014

Posted by BetterFatThanFascist.com in China, Russia

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

$400 billion gas deal, bubble, China, NATO, Russia

By Greg Smith

In 1972 President Richard Nixon taught the world the power of political strategy, greatly increasing U.S. leverage on the Soviet Union by opening relations with its bitter rival the Peoples Republic of China. Vladimir Putin recently tried a similar maneuver against the West, instantly proving he is no Richard Nixon.

Putin’s gambit, brokering a long-term $400 billion natural gas deal between Russia and China, was taken after Western nations placed sanctions on Russia in response to the latter’s invasion of Ukraine. Europe has grown dependent on Russian gas, and Russia on European money. Putin wants NATO capitals to shiver at the thought of its source of heat going east instead of west. In the future this example of Russia’s use of energy to gain influence will likely be looked upon as a poorly timed snub of a dull but reliable customer in favor of a Lamborghini-driving, Rolex-wearing, faux Gucci-clad garment mogul who lives with his mother, steals cable and is two months in arrears to his manicurist.

European leaders cannot help but now realize they can either dance to the Kremlin’s tune, freeze in winter or diversify their energy supply. Considering the burgeoning world gas trade, the latter will become easier as time wears on. Since Russia’s economy is nearly as dependent on energy exports as a Persian Gulf monarchy, Russia driving customers to find other suppliers is possibly the most short-term thinking seen outside Washington, DC in decades.

Were China to become a reliable long-term customer the net effect on the Russian economy would be negated. That is a Siberian sized ‘if.’

The dominant opinion that China’s economy will continue to expand as it has for over three decades is flawed. For the past five years China’s expansion of GDP has relied on massive use of borrowed money, which is being called China’s debt crisis or credit bubble, similar to that which brought on the Great Recession in the West.

The problem for Beijing is less that is has a credit bubble on its hands and more that its economy can no longer, without massive state stimulus, expand at nearly the double-digit numbers that has given it the moxie to swagger around the Pacific as the supposed next hyperpower. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio has grown from 130% in 2008 to over 250%. A healthy economy doesn’t require borrowing at a rate that is as rapid as it is massive. According to The Times of India, six years ago in China a borrowed dollar created nearly a dollar in economic growth. It now takes four borrowed dollars to create a dollar of growth, an unsustainable level even given China’s currency reserves.

History shows that no economy that allows credit to flow at such a rate escapes unscathed. Brazil, so recently a darling of the emerging markets, faced its credit bubble in 2013 and is now in recession. China’s credit increase has been much larger both in real and percentage terms.

Add in China’s rapidly aging population brought on by the One Child Policy and Beijing’s economic future is dim. The emerging market slowdown may act like the waves that swamped the Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975, dragging China’s highly leveraged economy into a decades-long funk. Putin has now voluntarily made this his problem, too.

If geopolitical push comes to shove, with ease the U.S. could choke the life out of China’s export-driven economy. Chinese demand for Russian gas would plummet, putting a huge dent in the Kremlin’s ability to compete with the West economically or militarily. While such a conflict is unlikely, natural economic forces are going to do slowly what the U.S. military could do quickly.

In 1972 China and the Soviet Union were bitter ideological foes that had fought a brief border war. Nixon’s rapprochement with communist China opened a new Cold War front, forcing Russia to adopt a more cooperative tone toward both the U.S. and China. In contrast Russia’s gas deal with China will alienate Europe, freeing the next U.S. president to lead NATO aggressively against Russia. China, not known for respecting its obligations to fellow nations, knows any dependency on Russian oil will come at a steep price when, inevitably, there is another Sino-Russo tussle. Beijing is the likeliest candidate to run up huge debts to Russia and hold off paying them as leverage.

Vladimir Putin just went long on a Chinese economic expansion living on borrowed time and money. Russian economic, political and military well being now relies on the success or failure of a sovereign version of Pets.com.   ©

Greg Smith is a freelance writer and political consultant who lives in Bantam, CT. His blog is found at www.betterfatthanfascist.com.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/edit-page/Chinas-debt-crisis-suggests-an-India-like-crash-round-the-corner/articleshow/29512055.cms

Share this:

  • Twitter
  • Facebook

Like this:

Like Loading...

President Obama, 1938 Called, It Wants Its Foreign Policy Back

25 Tuesday Mar 2014

Posted by BetterFatThanFascist.com in Foreign Policy, NATO

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

containment, Crimea, history, NATO, Russia, Ukraine

By Greg Smith

“The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because the Cold War’s been over for 20 years.” President Obama to Mitt Romney during 2012 presidential debate.

The idea the North Atlantic Treaty Organization lost its mission after the fall of the Soviet Union has been proven wrong by Russia’s Crimean annexation, but the fog of peace still hasn’t lifted for NATO members who became pre-occupied doing business with the 800-pound gorilla in the Kremlin. NATO’s mission will continue so long as Russia exists.

For 40 years NATO had a single mission: protect Western Europe from the Soviet threat of invasion. When the Soviet Union imploded in 1991 widespread belief was the threat from Russia had permanently disappeared. That sentiment was probably shared by the Golden Horde in the 1400s. You know, the Mongol empire long ago absorbed by its former vassal state, Russia.

Since the 1200s Russia can be compared to a glacier during a cooling period. It mainly increases in size, engorging and less often disgorging satellite nations and regions. Despite its size – in area Russia is almost twice the size of the second largest nation, Canada – Russia has viewed its neighbors with fear and suspicion, of course with some justification. Adding territory on its margin provided both a greater buffer and control of populations. Russian leaders have proven adept at bargain hunting, snapping up land when the price was right.

The lesson from history for NATO is simple: Make the price Russia pays to take over other countries too high. In the past three weeks there has been discussion of Russian views of Eastern and Central Europe as a sphere of influence, and that Western diplomatic efforts at closer ties with Ukraine, as well as NATO inching closer to Russian borders are cause for alarm in Moscow. Hogwash.

Given its size and resources Russia no longer has any excuse or justification for taking over territory for self defense. European countries have been disarming for decades. Even collectively and including Turkey they pose no real danger to Russia. The U.S. has continued to invest in modern equipment but mainly for unconventional war. The U.S. Army has actually requested production of its main battle tank – the one designed to shred Soviet tanks — be stopped.

Russia’s aggressive stance – particularly using shadowy, unmarked forces who appear more like Klansmen — against Ukraine shows it didn’t get the U.S. State Department’s memo ending 19th Century power politics. Western nations invite greater problems if they treat Russia like a wayward regional power, applying sanctions instead of putting military options on the table. Vladimir Putin may mean it when he says Russia has no designs on Ukraine or any other country, but effective diplomacy is about credible foreign policies that prevent these types of crises before they occur.

Acting as a bulwark against Russian expansion does not require a Cold War posture or attitude. In fact, a credible, sincere defense policy would prevent Russia from actively considering military measures, leaving dialogue as the preferred option. Crimea leaving Ukraine could have been dealt with diplomatically, but Russia chose not to go that route. Why not is the 64,000-ruble question.

So long as Russia exists, NATO will have three core missions: contain Russia, contain Russia, and contain Russia. Whether NATO chooses to fulfill its mission is less clear. ©

Greg Smith is a freelance writer and political consultant who lives in Bantam, CT. His blog is found at http://www.betterfatthanfascist.com.

Share this:

  • Twitter
  • Facebook

Like this:

Like Loading...

Blockade Forces Putin to Defeat Himself

03 Monday Mar 2014

Posted by BetterFatThanFascist.com in Foreign Policy, NATO, Russia, Soft Power

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Crimea, NATO, naval blockade, Russia, softer power, Ukraine

By Greg Smith

As previously covered in this blog, the best immediate response for NATO to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is to prevent access for Russian commercial and naval vessels to enter or exit the Black Sea.

One advantage of a naval blockade is it would require very limited air and naval forces, which would still be within striking distance of Iran. The U.S. Navy has grown smaller so a response that does not require a large number of ships would be preferable. The U.S. has F-22s in the region and could quickly have B-1s, which no longer have a nuclear role but can be fitted with anti-ship bombs and missiles. A blockade would be inexpensive, and Russia would not dare seriously test it.

NATO should immediately place a handful of old, expendable ships outside the Turkish Straights to act as a blockade curtain. The Russians may think we won’t risk a billion dollar cruiser in a collision, but the hockey crazy nation will understand the idea of a floating goon.

The best reason for a blockade is strategic: Russian access to the Mediterranean Sea is critical to Russia’s goal of becoming more a power equal to the U.S. Eliminating that access renders the Russian naval base nearly useless, an enormous strategic blow without firing a shot. Russia then has to decide to win a Pyrrhic victory or admit defeat. Russia would be forewarned its actions will seriously impair Vladimir Putin’s desperate desire to globally project military power.

Failure of the U.S. or NATO to act decisively will only invite further aggression, especially as it appears Russia’s incursion is intended to carve a Crimean slice off Ukraine. If the U.S. allows this to happen, which Baltic country is next on the menu?

Russia has used the Black Sea fleet to blockade the sovereign nations of Georgia and now Ukraine, it has no right to complain if another nation blockade’s the Black Sea fleet. A blockade is the best way to diffuse this crisis while preventing another. Why Washington won’t consider an essentially peaceful use of military power is beyond comprehension.  ©

Greg Smith is a freelance writer and political consultant who lives in Bantam, CT. His blog is found at www.betterfatthanfascist.com.

Share this:

  • Twitter
  • Facebook

Like this:

Like Loading...

Naval Blockade Is NATO’s Best Response to Russia’s Crimean Incursion

02 Sunday Mar 2014

Posted by BetterFatThanFascist.com in Crimea, Foreign Policy, geostrategic

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Berlin Airlift, Marmara, NATO, naval blockade, Obama, Russia, Ukraine

By Greg Smith

If the Obama administration wants a serious, effective response to the Russian intervention in the Crimea, it need only consult a map and a history book.

In 1948 Soviet forces denied the Western Allies access to Berlin in an attempt to force the West into abandoning this thorn in Stalin’s side. The West responded with an airlift, moving massive amounts of supplies essentially over the Iron Curtain. The wisdom of the Berlin Airlift was it allowed the West to maintain West Berlin as an outpost of freedom while forcing the Soviets to make the first move in a war. The Soviets wisely backed down.

Considering the geography and politics of the region, an effective response would be for NATO to announce a naval blockade of the entrance to the Sea of Marmara. Denying Russian access to the Turkish Straights would make the Black Sea a lake and strategically much less important, greatly diminishing the value of Russia’s naval base in the Crimea. This would warn Russia of Western resolve to defend the territorial integrity of Central Europe while forcing the Russians to fire the first shot. They would not dare.

The blockade would need to be held until Russian forces depart Ukrainian occupied territory outside of the base leased to them by Ukraine and publicly agree to respect Ukraine’s independence.

By indirectly intervening the international community would generally look upon this as justifiable and wise use of force, show Washington as a reliable partner, force Russia to think twice before its next incursion and achieve the goal without bloodshed. There is no downside. The world awaits an intelligent response.  ©

Greg Smith is a freelance writer and political consultant who lives in Bantam, CT. His blog is found at http://www.betterfatthanfascist.com.

Share this:

  • Twitter
  • Facebook

Like this:

Like Loading...

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 33 other followers

Donate

Archives

  • January 2017
  • February 2016
  • December 2015
  • October 2015
  • August 2015
  • June 2015
  • February 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014

Like us on Facebook

Like us on Facebook

Tags

China Crimea Democrats GOP NATO naval blockade Obama Republicans Russia Ukraine

Blog at WordPress.com.

  • Follow Following
    • Better fat than fascist
    • Join 33 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • Better fat than fascist
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar
%d bloggers like this: